『Abstract
　This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.
　Based on this model, companies can make better informed decisions for their market assessment and may use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments.
　Understanding future supply conditions is especially useful when selecting new technologies for products which require an intensive use of raw materials. As an example, the method is applied to the copper market as of 2006.
　It is important to emphasise that nobody can foresee the future of raw material prices. But we may aim to better understand the weaknesses of these markets which may lead to future supply shortages thus influencing price.

Keywords: Automobile industry; Copper; Indicators; Market analysis; Mining; Procurement; Raw material; Mineral Resources; Resource management; Risk mitigation; Supply risk; Supply and demand; Security of supply』

Introduction
Review of market instability and metal prices
Systematics of supply and demand analyses
Methodical basics
　Relevance analysis and data
　Developing the indicators and benchmarks
　Forecasts
Analysis for copper
　Data situation
　Price trends
　Supply and demand
　　Market balance (rating: 4, moderate; trend: problematic)
　　Stock-keeping (rating: 9, problematic)
　　Mine/refinery capacity utilisation (rating: 7, problematic; trend: problematic)
　Production costs
　　Cash costs (rating: 3, relaxed)
　Geostrategic risks
　　Country concentration and country risks (rating: 4, relaxed; trend: relaxed)
　Market power/company concentration
　　Company concentration (rating: 2, relaxed)
　Supply and demand trends/forecast
　　Static life time of reserves and resources (rating: 5, relaxed)
　　Degree of exploration (for 200-2004, rating: 6.5, moderate; for 2004 rating: 2, relaxed, trend relaxed)
　　Investments (for 1998-2002, rating: 6, moderate)
　　Market balance in 5 years (rating: 7, problematic)
　　Overall rating
Discussion and conclusions
Acknowledgements
Appendix 1. Selection of basic data for assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The list is open to further additions
References