『Abstract
　Food production requires application of fertilizers containing phosphorus, nitrogen and potassium on agricultural fields in order to sustain crop yields. However modern agriculture id dependent on phosphorus derived from phosphate rock, which is a non-renewable resource and current global reserves may be depleted in 50-100 years. While phosphorus demand is projected to increase, the expected global peak in phosphorus production is predicted to occur around 2030. The exact timing of peak phosphorus production might be disputed, however it is widely acknowledged within the fertilizer industry that the quality of remaining phosphate rock is decreasing and production costs are increasing. Yet future access to phosphorus receives little or no international attention. This paper puts forward the case for including long-term phosphorus scarcity on the priority agenda for global food security. Opportunities for recovering phosphorus and reducing demand are also addressed together with institutional challenges.

Keywords: Phosphorus; Phosphate rock; Global food security; Fertilizer; Peak phosphorus; Reuse; Scarcity』

1. Introduction
2. Humanity's addiction to phosphate rock
3. The current situation
　3.1. Demand for food, demand for fertilizers
　3.2. Global food security and resource scarcity
　3.3. Global phosphate rock reserves and geopolitics
　3.4. Quantifying today's phosphorus flows through the food system
　3.5. The environmental costs of the phosphate rock industry
4. Peak phosphorus - a sequel to peak oil?
5. Options for sustainable phosphorus use and management
6. Institutional and attitudinal barriers and opportunities
7. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References

Fig. 1. Historical sources of phosphorus for use as fertilizers, including manure, human excreta, guano and phosphate rock (1800.2000) (Reliability of data sources vary, hence data points for human excreta, guano and manure should be interpreted as indicative rather than precise.). Calculations based on data in Brink (1977), Buckingham and Jasinski (2004), IFA (2006) and Smil (2000b). 〔Cordell,D., Drangert,J.-O. and White,S.(2009)によるThe story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thoughtから〕

Fig. 3. Key phosphorus flows through the global food production and consumption system, indicating phosphorus usage, losses and recovery at each key stage of the process. Units are in Million Tonnes per year (Only significant flows are shown here, relevant to modern food production and consumption systems.). Calculations based on data in IFA (2006) and Smil (2000a,b). 〔Cordell,D., Drangert,J.-O. and White,S.(2009)によるThe story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thoughtから〕