『Abstract
As a limiting nutrient in aquatic systems, phosphorus (P) plays
an important role in controlling freshwater and coastal primary
productivity and ecosystem dynamics, increasing frequency and
severity of harmful and nuisance algae blooms and hypoxia, as
well as contributing to loss of biodiversity. Although dissolved
inorganic P (DIP) often constitutes a relatively small fraction
of the total P pool in aquatic systems, its
bioavailability makes it an important determinant of ecosystem
function. Here we describe, apply, evaluate, and interpret an
enhanced version of the Global NEWS-DIP model: NEWS-DIP-Half Degree
(NEWS-DIP-HD). Improvements to NEWS-DIP-HD over the original NEWS
DIP model include: 1) the preservation of spatial resolution of
input datasets at the 0.5 degree level, and 2) explicit downstream
routing of water and DIP from half degree cell to half degree
cell using a global flow-direction representation. NEWS-DIP explains
78% and 62% of the variability in per-basin DIP export (DIP load)
for USGS and global stations, respectively, similar to the original
NEWS-DIP model and somewhat more than other global models of DIP
loading and export. NEWS-DIP-HD output suggests that hot spots
for DIP loading tend to occur in urban centers, with the highest
per-area rate of DIP loading predicted for the half-degree grid-cell
containing Tokyo (6,366 kg P km-2 y-1).
Furthermore, cities with populations >100,000 accounted for
35% of global surface water DIP loading while covering less than
2% of global land surface area. NEWS-DIP-HD also indicates that
humans supply more DIP to surface waters than natural weathering
over the majority (53%) of the Earth’s land surface, with a
much larger area dominated by DIP point sources than non-point
sources (52% versus 1% of the global land surface, respectively).
NEWS-DIP-HD also suggests that while humans had increased DIP
input to surface waters more than 4-fold globally by the year
2000, human activities such as dam construction and consumptive
water use have somewhat moderated the effect of humans on P transport
by preventing (conservatively)
0.35 Tg P y-1 (〜20% of P inputs to surface waters)
from reaching coastal zones globally.』
1. Introduction
2. methods
2.1. NEWS-DIP-HD description
2.2. Model validation data
2.3. Model input data
2.4. Post-processing of model output
2.5. Model evaluation (Model uncertainty, sensitivity, and efficiency)
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Model performance
3.2. Model output
3.2.1. Spatial distribution of DIP export and sources
Export
Sources
3.2.2. Global and regional analyses
3.3. Sources of uncertainty and future directions
3.3.1. Model efficiency and sensitivity
3.3.2. Future directions
4. Acknowledgments
5. References cited
Table legends
Figure legends
Table Legends
Table 1. Input datasets for NEWS-DIP-HD
Table 2. Metrics of model performance for NEWS-DIP-HD and other
models, validated with dataset described in section 2.2 unless
otherwise noted.. R2 is model efficiency as defined
in section 3.1, and r2 is the coefficient of determination.
Errors are computed as the difference between the predicted and
measured values of stream phosphorus yield (kg km-2
yr-1) expressed as a percentage of the measured export
(section 3.1).
Table 3. Model efficiencies for comparison of log-transformed
measured and model predicted DIP yield, using NEWS-DIP-HD with
various components removed. All available measurement data
were used for this analysis.
Table 4: Results of a sensitivity analysis indicating mean
change in predicted DIP yield as a function of increasing input
datasets and model parameters by +10%.
Figure Legends
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of basins used to validate
the NEWS-DIP-0.5 model (n=206 overall). Xs represent sampling
stations within the Amazon River Basin (Devol et al., 1995). Plus
signs represent sampling stations monitored by the Global Environment
Monitoring System (GEMS) Water program not used in Harrison et
al., 2005 (n= 33; http://www.gemswater.org/index.html). Hollow
circles represent sampling stations within the Mississippi, Sacramento,
and San Joaquin River Basins (n=54; Data source: Alexander et
al. (1996)). Black diamonds represent stations used in calibration
and validation of the original NEWS-DIP model (n = 118; Harrison
et al., 2005). See Appendix B for data, model output, and station
names.
Figure 2. Measured versus modeled DIP load (Top; kg P basin-1
yr-1) and yield (Bottom; kg P km-2 y-1)
for Mississippi River Basin stations (hollow circles), global
coastal stations included in Harrison et al. (2005; black diamonds),
global stations from the United Nations Global Environmental Monitoring
System (GEMS; plus signs), and data from the Amazon Basin ([Devol
et al., 1995]; exes). See Appendix B for data, model output,
and basin names. The 1:1 line is also shown. Symbols are the same
as in Figure 1.
Figure 3. A) NEWS-DIP-predicted DIP yield by half-degree grid
cell (kg P km-2 y-1) and B) NEWS-DIP-HD-predicted
DIP yield by half-degree grid cell (kg P km-2 y-1).
White areas are either endoreic (A) or have a predicted DIP
loading to surface waters equal to zero (B).
Figure 4. NEWS-DIP-HD-estimated DIP retention (kg P km-2
y-1) globally by half degree. Estimates without
information regarding reservoir locations and consumptive water
use were assumed to retain no DIP, making this quite a conservative
estimate of DIP retention within watersheds globally.
Figure 5. Dominant source of DIP by half-degree grid cell.
“Dominant source” is defined as the modeled source that NEWS-DIP-HD
predicts contributes the largest single fraction of DIP to the
coast.
Figure 6. River export of DIP (Tg P -1) from continents
and to ocean basins. Relative influence of various P sources
calculated according to NEWS-DIP-HD.