『Abstract
We modeled the expected range of seasonal and annual N2O
flux from temperate, grain agroecosystems using Monte Carlo sampling
of N2O flux field observations. This analysis
is complementary to mechanistic biogeochemical model outcomes
and provides an alternative method of estimating N2O
flux. Our analysis produced a range of annual N2O
gas flux estimates with mean values overlapping with results from
an intermodel comparison of mechanistic models. Mean seasonal
N2O flux was 1-4% of available N, while median
seasonal N2O flux was less than 2% of available
N across corn, soybean, wheat, ryegrass, legume, and bare fallow
systems. The 25th-75th percentile values for simulated average
annualized N2O flux rates ranged from 1 to
12.2 kg N ha-1 in the conventional system, from 1.3
to 8.8 kg N ha-1 in the cover crop rotation, and from
0.8 to 9.3 kg N ha-1 in the legume rotation. Although
these modeling techniques lack the seasonal resolution of mechanistic
models, model outcomes are based on measured field observations.
Given the large variation in seasonal N gas flux predictions resulting
from the application of mechanistic simulation models, this data-derived
approach is a complimentary benchmark for assessing the impact
of agricultural policy on greenhouse gas emissions.
Keywords: Nitrogen; Nitrous oxide; N trace gas; Corn Belt』
Introduction
Methods
Agroecosystem studied
Data sources and summary statistics
Model framework
N2O flux calculations
Model implementation
Results and discussion
N2O flux trends
Monte Carlo simulation
Forecasting N2O flux
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References