『Abstract
The risks of exceeding EU limit values for NO2
concentrations have increased in many European cities, and compliance
depends strongly on meteorological conditions. This study focuses
on meteorological conditions and their influences on urban background
NO2 concentrations in the city of Gothenburg
for 1999-2008. The relations between observed NO2
concentrations and meteorological conditions are constructed using
two modelling approaches: multiple linear regression and synoptic
regression. Both approaches assume no trends in emissions over
the study period. The multiple linear regression model is established
on observed local meteorological variables. The synoptic-regression
model first groups days according to synoptic conditions using
Lamb Weather Types and then uses linear regression on each group
separately. A model comparison shows that linear regression model
and synoptic-regression model perform satisfactory. The synoptic-regression
model gives higher explained variance (R2) against
observations during the calibration years (1999-2007), in particular
for the morning peak and afternoon-evening peak concentrations,
but the improvement in the validation period is weak. The annual
mean NO2 variations, and their trends during
the study period, were assessed using the synoptic-regression
model. The synoptic-regression model is able to explain 54%, 42%
and 80% of the annual variability of daily mean, morning peak
and afternoon-evening peak NO2 concentrations,
respectively. The observed and modelled annual means of the daily
mean and morning/afternoon-evening peak NO2
concentrations show decreasing trends from 1999 to 2008. All trends,
except the trend in annual-average observed morning peak NO2 are statistically significant. The presence
of trends in the modelled NO2 concentrations
- even though emissions are assumed to be constant - leads us
to conclude that weather and climate alone are responsible for
a substantial fraction of the recent declines in observed NO2 concentrations in Gothenburg. Favourable meteorological
conditions may have mitigated increases in local NO2
emissions during 1999 to 2008.
Keywords: NO2 concentrations; Dispersion
conditions; Statistic downscaling; Linear regression model; Synoptic-regression
model; Gothenburg』
1. Introduction
2. Data and methods
2.1. Data
2.1.1. Air quality and local meteorological data
2.1.2. Lamb weather classification
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Multiple linear regression method
2.2.2. Synoptic-regression method
2.2.3. Predictor selection
2.2.4. Weekly emission index
2.2.5. Model evaluation measures
3. Results
3.1. Seasonal, weekly and diurnal cycles
3.2. Model comparison
3.3. Assessment of annual mean NO2 variations
and trends
4. Discussion and conclusions
Acknowledgements
References