『Abstract
A hydro-economic modelling framework is developed for determining
optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture.
A holistic optimization model determines the spatial and temporal
fertilizer application rate that maximizes the net benefits in
agriculture constrained by the quality requirements in groundwater
at various control sites. Since emissions (nitrogen loading rates)
are what can be controlled, but the concentrations are the policy
targets, we need to relate both. Agronomic simulations are used
to obtain the nitrate leached, while numerical groundwater flow
and solute transport simulation models were used to develop unit
source solutions that were assembled into a pollutant concentration
response matrix. The integration of the response matrix in the
constraints of the management model allows simulating by superposition
the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentration over time at
different points of interest throughout the aquifer resulting
from multiple pollutant sources distributed over time and space.
In this way, the modelling framework relates the fertilizer loads
with the nitrate concentration at the control sites. The benefits
in agriculture were determined through crop prices and crop production
functions. This research aims to contribute to the ongoing policy
process in the Europe Union (the Water Framework Directive) providing
a tool for analyzing the opportunity cost of measures for reducing
nitrogen loadings and assessing their effectiveness for maintaining
groundwater nitrate concentration within the target levels. The
management model was applied to a hypothetical groundwater system.
Optimal solutions of fertilizer use to problems with different
initial conditions, planning horizons, and recovery times were
determined. he illustrative example shows the importance of the
location of the pollution sources in relation to the control sites,
and how both the selected planning horizon and the target recovery
time can strongly influence the limitation of fertilizer use and
the economic opportunity cost for meeting the environmental standards.
There is clearly a trade-off between the time horizon to reach
the standards (recovery time) and the economic losses from nitrogen
use reductions.
Keywords: Nitrogen management; Diffuse groundwater pollution;
Hydro-economic modelling; Optimization; Water Framework Directive』
Introduction
Nitrate groundwater pollution
Method
Management model
Nitrate fate and transport and groundwater flow
Pollutant concentration response matrix
Agronomic simulation
Application of the modelling framework
Illustrative example
Pollutant concentration response matrix and breakthrough curves
Scenarios and results
Scenario 0. No nitrate standard
Scenario 1. Variable fertilizer application
Scenario 2. Constant fertilizer application
Scenario 3. Recovery from pollution
Scenario 4. Constant fertilizer application with initial pollution
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References