『Abstract
Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional
stand-alone studies towards being an integrated part of holistic
water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by
the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases
for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data,
geologic models, as well as national groundwater-surface water
model have been established and integrated to support water management.
This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based
on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically
realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020
has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part
of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases
and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks
of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for
atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be
coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at
a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems
will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model
and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning
process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding
of the system, are updated to currently available information.
The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing
new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative
uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing
scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and
(4) developing integrated information systems, including quality
assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder
involvement and learning.』
Introduction
Methodology
Analysis step 1: Long-term trend in groundwater modeling in Denmark
Situation in mid-1990s (1995 in Table 1)
Situation today (2009 in Table 1)
Possible future scenario (2020 in Table 1)
Analysis step 2: Status and research needs
Geologic and geophysical data - national databases
International status
Status in Denmark
Need for further developments and research challenges
Conceptual models - National databases
International status
Status in Denmark
Need for further developments and research challenges
National integrated hydrologic models
International status
Status in Denmark
Need for further developments and research challenges
Analysis step 3: Examples of integrated applications
Example 1: Geophysical and geologic mapping and interpretations
Example 2: national hydrologic model
Discussion
The Danish experience
Vision for information and decision support system in 2020
Scientific challenges
Characterizing geologic uncertainty and storing the information
in databases
Characterizing geologic heterogeneity and storing such information
in databases
Developing integrated modeling systems - Coupling of model codes
Developing integrated information systems
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References