Refsgaard,J.C., Hojberg(oには/が付く),A.L., Moller(oには/が付く),I., Hansen,M. and Sondergaard(oには/が付く),V.(2010): Groundwater modeling in integrated water resources management - Visions for 2020. Groundwater, 48(5), 633-648.

『統合的な水資源管理の地下水モデル化−2020年のビジョン』


Abstract
 Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional stand-alone studies towards being an integrated part of holistic water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data, geologic models, as well as national groundwater-surface water model have been established and integrated to support water management. This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020 has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding of the system, are updated to currently available information. The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and (4) developing integrated information systems, including quality assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder involvement and learning.』

Introduction
Methodology
Analysis step 1: Long-term trend in groundwater modeling in Denmark
 Situation in mid-1990s (1995 in Table 1)
 Situation today (2009 in Table 1)
 Possible future scenario (2020 in Table 1)
Analysis step 2: Status and research needs
 Geologic and geophysical data - national databases
  International status
  Status in Denmark
  Need for further developments and research challenges
 Conceptual models - National databases
  International status
  Status in Denmark
  Need for further developments and research challenges
 National integrated hydrologic models
  International status
  Status in Denmark
  Need for further developments and research challenges
Analysis step 3: Examples of integrated applications
 Example 1: Geophysical and geologic mapping and interpretations
 Example 2: national hydrologic model
Discussion
 The Danish experience
 Vision for information and decision support system in 2020
 Scientific challenges
  Characterizing geologic uncertainty and storing the information in databases
  Characterizing geologic heterogeneity and storing such information in databases
  Developing integrated modeling systems - Coupling of model codes
  Developing integrated information systems
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References


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