『Abstract
Natural variations in the tropospheric CH4
concentration, excluding short bursts from geospheric reservoirs,
have been estimated for the past 400 Ma by scaling a wetland CH4 emission estimate for the middle Pliocene (ca.
3.6-2.6 Ma) by the relative rate of coal basin deposition at any
given time in the past. Wetland CH4 fluxes
were used as inputs into the Cambridge 2-D chemistry-transport
model to determine the equilibrium atmospheric response. The approach
suggests tropospheric CH4 concentrations
reached exceptionally high values of 〜12,000 ppb during the Permo-Carboniferous,
when tropical swamplands were widespread, fell to minimum levels
(〜100 ppb) during the Triassic ‘coal gap’, averaged around 2000
to 4000 ppb during the Mesozoic and <1000 ppb in the Cenozoic.
Peak Permo-Carboniferous CH4 levels could
have contributed additional radiative forcing of 〜2 to 4 W m-2,
after accounting for the indirect effects of increased stratospheric
H2O and tropospheric ozone. Assuming co-variance
of N2O with CO2 and
CH4, we predict a combined additional forcing
by these two trace greenhouse gases of up to 4 W m-2
during the warm Mesozoic. Although variations in Earth's Phanerozoic
CH4 history probably played a secondary role
to atmospheric CO2 and the evolution of the
Sun in driving climate change, the combined effects CH4
and N2O appear to be sufficiently large to
warrant incorporation into global modeling studies of past warm
climates.』
Introduction
The global CH4 cycle: Past and present
Modeling Earth's long-term atmospheric CH4
variations
Results and Discussion
Comparison with earlier Phanerozoic CH4
calculations
Modeling caveats
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References