『Abstract
General circulation models (GCMs) use the laws of physics and
an understanding of past geography to simulate climatic responses.
They are objective in character. However, they tend to require
powerful computers to handle vast numbers of calculations. Nevertheless,
it is now possible to compare results from different GCMs for
a range of times and over a wide range of parameterisations for
the past, present and future (e.g. in terms of predictions of
surface air temperature, surface moisture, precipitation, etc.).
GCMs are currently producing simulated climate predictions for
the Mesozoic, which compare favourably with the distributions
of climatically sensitive facies (e.g. coals, evaporites and palaeosols).
They can be used effectively in the prediction of oceanic upwelling
sites and the distribution of petroleum source rocks and phosphorites.
Models also produce evaluations of other parameters that do not
leave a geological record (e.g. cloud cover, snow cover) and equivocal
phenomena such as storminess. Parameterisation of sub-grid scale
processes is the main weakness in GCMs (e.g. land surfaces, convection,
cloud behaviour) and model output for continental interiors is
still too cold in winter by comparison with palaeontological data.
The sedimentary and palaeontological record provides an important
way that GCMs may themselves be evaluated and this is important
because the same GCMs are being used currently to predict possible
changes in future climate.
The Mesozoic Earth was, by comparison with the present, an alien
world, as we illustrate here by reference to late Triassic, late
Jurassic and late Cretaceous simulations. Dense forests grew close
to both poles but experienced months-long daylight in warm summers
and months-long darkness in cold snowy winters. Ocean depths were
warm (8℃ or more to the ocean floor) and reefs, with corals, grew
10゜ of latitude further north and south than at the present time.
The whole Earth was warmer than now by 6℃ or more, giving more
atmospheric humidity and a greatly enhanced hydrothermal cycle.
Much of the rainfall was predominantly convective in character,
often focused over the oceans and leaving major desert expanses
on the continental areas. Polar ice sheets are unlikely to have
been present because of the high summer temperatures achieved.
The model indicates extensive sea ice in the nearly enclosed Arctic
seaway through a large portion of the year during the late Cretaceous,
and the possibility of sea ice in adjacent parts of the Midwest
Seaway over North America. The Triassic world was a predominantly
warm world, the model output for evaporation and precipitation
conforming well with the known distributions of evaporites, calcretes
and other climatically sensitive facies for that time.
The message from the geological record is clear. Through the
Phanerozoic, Earth's climate has changed significantly, both on
a variety of time scales and over a range of climatic states,
usually baldly referred to as “greenhouse” and “icehouse”, although
these terms disguise more subtle states between these extremes.
Any notion that the climate can remain constant for the convenience
of one species of anthropoid is a delusion (although the recent
rate of climatic change is exceptional).
Keywords: Climate models; Triassic; Jurassic; Cretaceous; Palaeoclimates』
1. Introduction
2. Model description
3. Triassic: model/proxy data comparison
3.1. Temperatures
3.2. Temperature-limited facies
3.3. Precipitation
3.4. Triassic facies and floras
4. Jurassic (Kimmeridgian): model/proxy data comparison
5. Late Cretaceous: model/proxy data comparison
5.1. Modelled temperature
5.2. Precipitation and climate zones
5.3. Output from other models and the geological evidence
5.4. Cretaceous vegetation and biomes
5.5. Temperature-limited facies
6. Conclusions
References