This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario.
Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy.
While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively.
Keywords: Renewable energy; Electricity scenarios; LEAP model』
2. Background to Korea's electricity sector
3.1. LEAP model
3.2. Main assumption and data structure in the LEAP model
4. Scenario design
5. Results and discussion
5.1. Energy system
5.2. GHG emissions and other environmental impacts
Fig. 1. Sources of electricity generation and generation indicators in Korea.
Fig. 2. Comparison of electricity generation outlook by scenario.