『Abstract
Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa
are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability,
quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate
models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in prediction
at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural
forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption,
evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect
the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation
between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a
consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions
will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter
and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially
in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized
by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas,
as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing
human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized
of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal
fringes, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of
expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and
industrial areas, and tourist resorts.
Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region
suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already
observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline
in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due
to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime
characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from
snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer,
and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir
inputs and management, including lower available discharges from
dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas.
Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be subject to increasing
water resource uncertainty, because of the reduced influence of
snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. Besides, reservoir capacity
is naturally reduced due to increasing sedimentation and, in some
cases, is also decreased to improve the safety control of floods,
leading a reduction in efficiency for agriculture. And (4) hydrological
and population changes in coastal areas, particularly in the delta
zones, affected by water depletion, groundwater reduction and
saline water intrusion. These scenarios enhance the necessity
of improving water management, water prizing and water recycling
policies, in order to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions
among regions and countries.
Keywords: climate change; land cover changes; snow accumulation;
reservoir management; Mediterranean region; Hydrological change』
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Recent environmental change and its hydrological consequences
2.1. Climate evolution
2.2. Land cover and land use changes
2.3. Changes in river discharge and water resources
2.3.1. A consistent decrease in water resources because of decreasing
precipitation and increasing temperature
2.3.2. Changes in river regimes caused by snow accumulation
and melting processes
2.3.3. Changes in river regimes caused by reservoir management
2.3.4. A decrease in water resources attributable to land cover
change
3. Projected environmental change for the 21st century, and hydrological
implications
3.1. Projected climatic change
3.2. Projected changes in river flows
3.3. Scenarios of future vegetation cover and land use changes
4. Discussion: will current water management strategies be adequate
to address the consequences of environmental change?
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References