Lin,B., Zhang,L. and Wu,Y.(2012): Evaluation of electricity saving potential in China's chemical industry based on cointegration. Energy Policy, 44, 320-330.

『コインテグレーションに基づいた中国の化学産業における電力節約可能性の評価』


Abstract
 The purpose of this study is to investigate the future electricity saving potential of China's chemical industry. Applying cointegration, we find that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity intensity and technology, labor, electricity prices and industry structure. The result shows that more active electricity saving policies are objectively required to be implemented in order to reduce the electricity intensity in China's chemical industry as well as to shrink future electricity saving potential. For this purpose, we have adopted a scenario analysis method to predict the electricity intensity and the electricity saving amount under two different scenarios. It is found that energy conservation policy provides a continuous impetus for reducing the electricity saving potential. In terms of electricity intensity of the chemical industry, China's intensity is approaching the level in Japan, with the gap narrowing significantly by the year 2020. Finally, based on the elasticities obtained in the long-term equilibrium equation, the paper suggests a range of future policy priorities and directions.

Keywords: Chemical industry; Electricity saving potential; Cointegration』

1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Methodology
 3.1. Cointegration
 3.2. Model stability
4. Data source and main factors determining electricity saving potential
 4.1. Data sources
 4.2. Comparison of electricity intensity between China's and Japan's chemical industries
 4.3. Main factors determining electricity saving potential and basic assumptions
  4.3.1.Technology (RD)
  4.3.2. Labor productivity (LP)
  4.3.3. Industry structure (IS)
  4.3.4. Electricity price (EP)
  4.3.5. Other factors
5. Results and discussion
 5.1. Results of the unit-root tests
 5.2. Johansen cointegration tests
 5.3. Stability test
 5.4. Electricity intensity prediction
 5.5. Electricity-saving potential and amount
6. Conclusions and policy implications
Acknowledgments
Appendix A. Detailed description of all variables
Appendix B. Results of the unit-root test and Johansen cointegration test
Appendix C. Results of the stability test
References


戻る