『Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the future electricity
saving potential of China's chemical industry. Applying cointegration,
we find that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between
electricity intensity and technology, labor, electricity prices
and industry structure. The result shows that more active electricity
saving policies are objectively required to be implemented in
order to reduce the electricity intensity in China's chemical
industry as well as to shrink future electricity saving potential.
For this purpose, we have adopted a scenario analysis method to
predict the electricity intensity and the electricity saving amount
under two different scenarios. It is found that energy conservation
policy provides a continuous impetus for reducing the electricity
saving potential. In terms of electricity intensity of the chemical
industry, China's intensity is approaching the level in Japan,
with the gap narrowing significantly by the year 2020. Finally,
based on the elasticities obtained in the long-term equilibrium
equation, the paper suggests a range of future policy priorities
and directions.
Keywords: Chemical industry; Electricity saving potential; Cointegration』
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Methodology
3.1. Cointegration
3.2. Model stability
4. Data source and main factors determining electricity saving
potential
4.1. Data sources
4.2. Comparison of electricity intensity between China's and
Japan's chemical industries
4.3. Main factors determining electricity saving potential and
basic assumptions
4.3.1.Technology (RD)
4.3.2. Labor productivity (LP)
4.3.3. Industry structure (IS)
4.3.4. Electricity price (EP)
4.3.5. Other factors
5. Results and discussion
5.1. Results of the unit-root tests
5.2. Johansen cointegration tests
5.3. Stability test
5.4. Electricity intensity prediction
5.5. Electricity-saving potential and amount
6. Conclusions and policy implications
Acknowledgments
Appendix A. Detailed description of all variables
Appendix B. Results of the unit-root test and Johansen cointegration
test
Appendix C. Results of the stability test
References