Qin,C., Bressers,H.T.A., Su,Z,(B.), Jia,Y. and Wang,H.(2011): Assessing economic impacts of China's water pollution mitigation measures through a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 15pp.

『ダイナミック計算一般平衡分析による中国の水汚染軽減方策の経済インパクトを評価する』


Abstract
 In this letter, we apply an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of implementing a total emission control policy. On the basis of emission levels in 2007, we simulate different emission reduction scenarios, ranging from 20 to 50% emission reduction, up to the year 2020. The results indicate that a modest total emission reduction target in 2020 can be achieved at low macroeconomic cost. As the stringency of policy targets increases, the macroeconomic cost will increase at a rate faster than linear. Implementation of a tradable emission permit system can counterbalance the economic costs affecting the gross domestic product and welfare. We also find that a stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption and trade patterns from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors.

Keywords: environmental computable general equilibrium; water pollution; tradable emission permits; emission reduction target; environmental policy』

1. Introduction
2. Dataset and methodology
 2.1. Description of the model
 2.2. Dataset: environmental social accounting matrix
 2.3. Calibration of the model
3. Emission reduction scenarios
4. Policy simulations and key findings
 4.1. Macroeconomic results
 4.2. Sectoral results
 4.3. Abatement and environmental results
 4.4. Sensitivity analysis
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References


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