『Abstract
In this letter, we apply an extended environmental dynamic computable
general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences
of implementing a total emission control policy. On the basis
of emission levels in 2007, we simulate different emission reduction
scenarios, ranging from 20 to 50% emission reduction, up to the
year 2020. The results indicate that a modest total emission reduction
target in 2020 can be achieved at low macroeconomic cost. As the
stringency of policy targets increases, the macroeconomic cost
will increase at a rate faster than linear. Implementation of
a tradable emission permit system can counterbalance the economic
costs affecting the gross domestic product and welfare. We also
find that a stringent environmental policy can lead to an important
shift in production, consumption and trade patterns from dirty
sectors to relatively clean sectors.
Keywords: environmental computable general equilibrium; water
pollution; tradable emission permits; emission reduction target;
environmental policy』
1. Introduction
2. Dataset and methodology
2.1. Description of the model
2.2. Dataset: environmental social accounting matrix
2.3. Calibration of the model
3. Emission reduction scenarios
4. Policy simulations and key findings
4.1. Macroeconomic results
4.2. Sectoral results
4.3. Abatement and environmental results
4.4. Sensitivity analysis
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References