Morgan,T.K.K.B., Sardelic,D.N. and Waretini,A.F.(2012): The Three Gorges Project: How sustainable? Journal of Hydrology, 460-461, 1-12.

『三峡プロジェクト:いかに持続可能か?』


Abstract
 In 1984 the Government of China approved the decision to construct the Three Gorges Dam Project, the largest project since the Great Wall. The project had many barriers to overcome, and the decision was made at a time when sustainability was a relatively unknown concept. The decision to construct the Three Gorges Project remains contentious today, especially since Deputy Director of the Three Gorges Project Construction Committee, Wang Xiaofeng, stated that “We absolutely cannot relax our guard against ecological and environmental security problems sparked by the Three Gorges Project” (Bristow, 2007; McCabe, 2007). The question therefore was posed: how sustainable is the Three Gorges Project? Conventional approaches to sustainability assessment tend to use monetary based assessment aligned to triple bottom line thinking. That is, projects are evaluated as trade-offs between economic, environmental and social costs and benefits. The question of sustainability is considered using such a traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis approach, as undertaken in 1988 by a CIPM-Yangtze Joint Venture, and the Mauri Model Decision Making Framework (MMDMF). The Mauri Model differs from other approaches in that sustainability performance indicators are considered independently from any particular stakeholder bias. Bias is then introduced subsequently as a sensitivity analysis on the raw results obtained. The MMDMF is unique in that it is based on the Maori(aの頭に-) concept of Mauri, the binding force between the physical and the spiritual attributes of something, or the capacity to support life in the air, soil, and water. This concept of Mauri is analogous to the Chinese concept of Qi, and there are many analogous concepts in other cultures. It is the universal relevance of Mauri that allows its use to assess sustainability. This research identified that the MMDMF was a strong complement to Cost-Benefit Analysis, which is not designed as a sustainability assessment tool in itself. The MMDMF does have relevance in identifying areas of conflict, and it can support the Cost-Benefit Analysis in assessing sustainability, as a Decision Support Tool. The research concluded that, based on both models, the Three Gorges Project as understood in 1988, and incorporating more recent sustainability analysis is contributing to enhanced sustainability.

Keywords: Sustainability assessment; Mauri Model; Decision Making Framework; Three Gorges Project』

1. Introduction
2. Background
3. Methodology
 3.1. The Mauri Model Decision Making Framework
 3.2. Cost-Benefit Analysis
 3.3. Comparison of the assessments
4. Assessment results
 4.1. The Mauri Model Decision Making Framework
 4.2. Cost-Benefit Analysis
5. Discussion
 5.1. Cost-Benefit Analysis
 5.2. MMDMF
 5.3. Assessing sustainability
6. Conclusions and scope for further research
Acknowledgements
Appendix A. Supplementary material
References


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