Shao,S., Yang,L., Yu,M. and Yu,M.(2011): Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009. Energy Policy, 39, 6476-6494.

『1994〜2009年の上海(中国)におけるエネルギー関連産業二酸化炭素排出の見積りと特性と決定要因』


Abstract
 This paper estimates energy-related industrial CO2 emissions (ICE) in Shanghai from 1994 to 2009 and summarizes ICE's characteristics. The results show that the coal-type consumption is the ICE's largest source of the entire industry and that the energy consumption structure of CO2 emissions of the entire industry depends largely on that of six sub-sectors of high emission group, which contributes to most of ICE. Furthermore, the paper implements an econometric study on the ICE's determinants based on the ICE-STIRPAT model. The results indicate that the relationship between ICE and per capita output presents an inverted N-shaped curve with two turning points, resulting from the comprehensive influence of scale, composition, and technique effects, and that most sub-sectors remain in the second stage of the curve. Energy efficiency exerts a more efficient control over ICE than R&D intensity. ICE intensity is regulated more easily than ICE scale. In the long run, industrial growth and coal-type consumption play the most important roles in driving ICE, whereas energy efficiency exerts the most prominent effect on reducing it. The results of the robustness analysis indicate that the utilization of the ICE-STIRPAT model is valid and robust under the setting of environment impact control over ICE in Shanghai.

Keywords: Industrial CO2 emissions; Determinants; Shanghai』

1. Introduction
2. Estimation and characteristics of ICE

 2.1. Estimation methodology
 2.2. Estimation results and evolution trend
 2.3. Emission structure
3. Analytical approach of ICE's determinants
 3.1. Theoretical framework
 3.2. Econometric model
 3.3. Econometric methodology
 3.4. Data
4. Results and discussion of ICE's determinants
 4.1. Overall discussion
 4.2. Determinants of ICE scale
 4.3. Determinants of ICE intensity
 4.4. Discussion on inverted N-shaped curve
 4.5. Long-term influence of factors on ICE
 4.6. Lagged effect of ICE change
 4.7. Robustness analysis
5. Conclusions and policy recommendations
Acknowledgments
Appendix A
References


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