『Abstract
　To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40-45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO2 emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO2 emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component for the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO2 emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO2 emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.

Keywords: Low-carbon development plan; The STIRPAT model; Scenario analysis』

1. Introduction
2. Study area
3. Methodology and data
　3.1. Modelling framework
　3.2. Data
　3.3. Scenario analysis and stakeholder involvement
4. Results and discussion
　4.1. The STIRPAT model
　　4.1.1. Establishment of the model
　　4.1.2. Degrees of contribution of the driving forces
　4.2. Selection of the optimal scenario for the low-carbon plan
　　4.2.1. Scenario design in different levels
　　4.2.2. Optimal scenario selection based on CO2 emissions
　　4.2.3. Analysis about the optimal scenario
　4.3. Low-carbon development strategy in Minhang District
　4.4. Strength and weakness of the framework
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgement
References