『Abstract
For the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), the Chinese
government has decided to reconsider and adjust its policies on
economic development because of the pressures of CO2
emissions and fossil energy consumption. The current paper adopts
the logarithmic Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,
Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model to simulate the relationship
between CO2 emissions and other economic
development factors in China. Three groups of outliers are found
using samples from 1989 to 2008 and the Partial Least Square (PLS)
regularity test method. The outlier analysis reveals three important
areas for CO2 emission: (a) decreasing the
share of coal to the total energy consumption and replacing it
with non-fossil energies; (b) controlling vehicles used in the
cities as well as (c) adjusting industrial structure. Furthermore,
based on the social and economic realities of China, the current
paper designs six feasible development scenarios for the period
covered by the 12th Five-Year Plan and predicts the values of
each factor in each scenario. The values can test the implementation
of China's CO2 control development concept.
The experiences obtained by outlier analysis can be of significant
reference value for realizing the predicted scenarios.
Keywords: CO2 emissions; economic development;
scenario prediction』
1. Introduction
2. Methodologies
2.1. STIRPAT model
2.2. PLS and outlier test method
2.3. Grey model
3. Results and discussions
3.1. Data selection and preliminary analysis
3.2. Experiences from the outlier test
3.3. Scenario designs
3.4. Scenario predictions
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References