wAbstract
@Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable
development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy
efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage
Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are
essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment
(E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of
China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy-electricity
demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and
emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario
is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy
and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as
low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to
realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity
consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity
intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity
generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy
by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO2 emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China,
could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO2
emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010-2030. To realize the massive
potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely
much on technology innovation in the future.
Keywords: Low carbon Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment; Energy
Usage Management; Integrated Resource Strategic Planningx
1. Introduction
2. E4 frameworks for energy and electricity demand analysis
3. BAU energy and electricity demand for China toward 2030
4. Low carbon economy: a Chinese perspective on energy sector
@4.1. Low carbon energy model - Energy Usage Management in
China
@4.2. Low carbon electricity model - integrated resource strategy
planning and super smart grid
5. Impacts of low carbon energy and electricity development in
China
@5.1. Low carbon scenario
6. Policy mechanisms
7. Conclusions
Acknowledgement
References