『Abstract
China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide
emissions per unit of GDP from 40％ to 45％ compared with the 2005
level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil
fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies
that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with
a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated
into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed,
including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and
two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon
intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97％ between 2005 and
2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further
by 7.97％ if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans
can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest
of the 40-45％ target must be realized by other measures such as
carbon constraint. it is also observed that due to carbon intensity
constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032％ to 0.24％ compared to
the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission
reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in
the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.
Keywords: China's commitment; Non-fossil energy; Computable general
equilibrium models』
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Production
2.2. Household
2.3. Government
2.4. International transaction
2.5. CO2 abatement
3. Base year data
3.1. Input-output data in 2005
3.2. Energy balance table in 2005
3.3. CO2 emissions factors
34. Data for characteristics of electricity generation technologies
4. Scenario
5. Results
5.1. Carbon intensity and carbon price in 2020
5.2. Primary energy consumption and electricity generation
5.3. GDP
5.4. Energy cost, activity level and sectoral contribution to
CO2 reduction
5.5. Sensitivity analysis
6. Discussion
6.1. CO2 emissions and macroeconomic
impacts
6.2. Comparison with IPAC-AIM/Enduse model
6.3. Comparison with historical trends
7. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Appendix A
References