『Abstract
In this paper, CO2 and pollutant emissions
of PCs in China from 2000 to 2005 were calculated based on a literature
review and measured data. The future trends of PC emissions were
also projected under three scenarios to explore the reduction
potential of possible policy measures. Estimated baseline emissions
of CO, HC, NOx, PM10
and CO2 were respectively 3.16×106.
5.14×105, 3.56×105, 0.83×104
and 9.14×107 tons for China's PCs in 2005 with an uneven
distribution among provinces. Under a no improvement (NI) scenario,
PC emissions of CO, HC, NOx, PM10
and CO2 in 2020 are respectively estimated
to be 4.5, 2.5, 2.5, 7.9 and 8.0 times that of 2005. However,
emissions other than CO2 from PCs are estimated
to decrease nearly 70％ by 2020 compared to NI scenario mainly
due to technological improvement linked to the vehicle emissions
standards under a recent policy (RP) scenario. Fuel economy (FE)
enhancement and the penetration of advanced propulsion/fuel systems
could be co-benefit measures to control CO2
and pollutant emissions for the mid and long terms. Significant
variations were found in PC emission inventories between different
studies primarily due to uncertainties in activity levels and/or
emission factors (EF).
Keywords: Air pollution; CO2 emissions; Passenger
car』
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Population of passenger cars in China
2.2. Annual vehicle kilometers traveled of passenger cars
2.3. Scenarios analysis
2.4. Emission factors of PC
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Emissions inventory of PC in 2005
3.2. Emissions of PC in the future
3.2.1.. Projection of pollutant emissions
3.2.2. Projection of CO2 emissions
3.3. Uncertainty analysis
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References