『Abstract
Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition
analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China.
We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by
globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese
policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact
of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated
by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even
reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon
intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during
2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition
method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of
coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire
time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared
to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated
by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable
role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization
targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO2-only),
and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for
the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official
targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections
for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them
to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term.
Keywords: Chinese climate policy; Carbon intensity; Kaya-decomposition』
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. China's carbon emissions in retrospective
3.1. Analysis along Kaya factors
3.2. Influence of the GDP accounting method
3.3. Kaya analysis
3.4. Extended Kaya-decomposition for carbon intensity: method
3.5. Supplying the extended decomposition: the role of coal
4. Future options for decarbonization
4.1. Baseline assumption in ReMIND-R
4.2. China's role in global mitigation
4.3. Macroeconomic effects of climate policy
4.4. Assessment of mitigation options
4.5. Investment needs
5. Assessing China's energy and climate policies
5.1. Climate change and sustainable development in China
5.2. Domestic measures
5.3. Evaluation of Chinese climate change policy
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgment
Appendix
Model description
Baseline description
References