『Abstract
This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide
emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel
cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques
based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period
1995-2007. Our empirical results show that CO2
emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared
to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality
between CO2 emissions and energy consumption,
and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has
also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are
the long-run causes for CO2 emissions and
CO2 emissions and economic growth are the
long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that
China's CO2 emissions will not decrease in
a long period of time and reducing CO2 emissions
may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy
implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed.
Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; Energy consumption; Economic
growth
1. Introduction
2. Data and model
3. Econometric analysis and results
3.1. Panel unit root tests
3.2. Panel cointegration tests
3.3. Panel Granger causality tests
3.4. Comparison with three relevant studies
4. Conclusion and policy implications
Acknowledgments
References