wAbstract
@Dynamic targets have been long advocated as a participatory tool
for developing countries in climate change mitigation. Copenhagen
commitments of India and China resume this trend after the unsuccessful
attempt of Argentina a decade ago. however, linear intensity targets
are prone to ehot airf problems or non-compliance risks. Intensity
targets of India and China are analyzed using their elasticity
parameters. The relationship of these parameters to the structural
nature of emissions and GDP profiles has been demonstrated and
a method of comparing the probability indices of target achievement
has been formulated in this paper, showing a lower probability
for China compared to India. Similarly, a method of defining stringency
factor for linear targets has been suggested and stringency factors
evaluated for India (40) and China (90), which shows the relative
stability of India's targets. This paper evaluates an energy-GDP-emissions
index (EYE index) to indicate the extent of coupling/decoupling
of economic growth from emissions. The three indices developed
in this paper, namely, elasticity parameter, stringency factor
and EYE index can be effectively used to analyze the economy-emissions
relationships for policy making and target setting.
keywords: Analysis of India and China; Intensity targets; Stringency
factorx
1. Introduction
2. Climate change in a development framework
3. GHG intensity
4. Argentina's experience
5. Intensity targets
6. Indexed intensity targets
7. Probability index of achieving intensity targets
8. Elasticity parameter and the structural nature of emissions
9. Stringency factor for target achievement
10. Energy-GDP-emissions index (EYE index)
11. Emission reduction requirements - example of India
12. Intensity targets for developing country participation
13.Conclusions
References