『Abstract
Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions
targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto
climate policy regime. China and India's commitments are framed
as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40-45%
and 20-25%, respectively, between 2005 and 2020. How feasible
are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and
India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in
the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier
model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the
effects of input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology
variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for
China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace
of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil
energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious
carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target,
and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on
par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India's target
is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no
dedicated mitigation policies.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; Climate change; Developing countries』
1. Introduction
2. Econometric model
3. Econometric results
4. Scenarios
5. Business as usual projections vs. country targets
6. Alternative policy scenarios for China
7. Comparing developed and developing country targets
8. Discussion and conclusions
Acknowledgements
References