『Summary
In this paper, a factor analysis model that could break down
sulfur oxide emissions into five factors is developed and used
to evaluate the contributors to fluctuations of SO2
emessions in Japan and China. Then we make a comparative analysis
on abatement efforts under way in each country. The major conclusions
are as follows:
(1) In Japan, SO2 emissions have been on
the sharp decline after peaking in the 1960s' second half at the
5-million-ton level. It was because comprehensive environmental
measures, including desulfurization efforts and energy-related
ones, were introduced after the Environmental Act wasenacted,
and because all factors but the economic growth functioned well
to reducing SO2 emissions.
(2) In China, SO2 emissions have increased
from 7 million tons-short in the early 1970s to 24 million tons
in the mid-1990s. For one thing, the desulfurization factor functioned
littile as a contributor to SO2 reductions.
The remaining factors contributed to SO2
reductions less than their Japanese counterparts did, while the
economic growth proved much higher than in Japan, thus sending
positive contributors overwhekming negative ones.
(3) Focusing on environmental control policy system, Japan's system
centers on emission standards, total emission control and fuel
regulations, while China's dose on concentration standards and
desulfurizer regulations without committing to quantitative control
and fuel regulations. On energy and environmental policies, the
both countries strengthened energy conservation measures. Yet,
as for structural shifts (switching to low-sulfur fossil energies
to non-fossil energies), Japan definitely took incentive measures,
but China did few.
(4) To keep the robust economic growth and realize SOx reductions
simultaneously, it would be essential for China to introduce quantitative
control and take policies to discourage coal use and promote switching
to non-fossil energies, while strengthening conservation measures.
はじめに
1.二酸化硫黄排出量の要因分解モデル
2.データ
3.実証分析の結果
3-1 日本
3-2 中国
3-3 日中比較
4.中国への示唆
4-1 環境規制政策
4-2 エネルギー環境政策
『おわりに
経済成長の維持と硫黄酸化物排出量の削減を同時に実現するために、脱硫要因、低硫黄化要因、非化石エネルギーへの転換要因および省エネルギー要因をすべて削減要因として機能させなければならない。そのために、健全な総合環境政策体系を整備することは必要不可欠である。中国にとっては、省エネルギー対策の強化と同時に、濃度規制から排出量規制へ切り替えること、総量規制の指定地域を拡大すること、脱石炭化政策および非化石エネルギーへの転換政策を取ることが、最重要の課題である。』
謝辞
参考文献