『Abstract
　China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11％ per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17％ per year - roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others.

Keywords: China; Vehicle projection; Transport oil demand』

1. Previous forecasts of China's vehicle population
　1.1. Critique of forecast methods
　1.2. Vehicle projections based on GDP forecasts
　1.3. Analogous historical experiences
2. Constructing a forecast using comparable countries and experiments
　2.1. Our forecast
　2.2. Japan and Korea growth model
　2.3. Seven-country growth model
　2.4. Forecasts of passenger cars only
　2.5. Are vehicle growth rates robust across regions?
　2.6. Will vehicle growth be constrained by limited oil supply and high oil prices?
　2.7. Will vehicle growth be constrained by limited road space?
　2.8. Income elasticity of vehicle ownership
3. Conclusions
References