『Abstract
Fossil energy subsidies reform would be an effective way to improve
the energy consumption structure; however, the reform needs to
be assessed comprehensively beforehand as it would exert uncertain
impacts on economy, society and environment. In this paper, we
use price-gap approach to estimate the fossil energy subsidies
of China, then establish CGE model that contains pollutant emissions
accounts and CO2 emissions account to simulate
the fossil energy subsidies reform under different scenarios,
and the environmental economic analysis concept is introduced
to monetize the pollutant reduction benefits. Furthermore, we
analyze the possibility and scope of improving the energy consumption
structure from the perspective of technical and economic analysis.
Analytical results show that the energy consumption structure
could be improved by different extent by removing coal or oil
subsidies, while the economic and social indexes will be influenced
distinctively. Meanwhile, the effects of cutting coal subsidies
are more feasible than that of cutting oil subsidies overall.
It is recommended to implement fossil energy subsidies gradually,
cut the coal first and then cut oil subsidies successively.
Keywords: Energy consumption structure; Fossil energy subsidies
reform; CGE model』
1. Introduction
2. Brief review of literature
3. Estimation of fossil energy subsidies
3.1. Price-gap approach
3.2. Impacts of subsidies on energy consumption
3.3. Fossil energy subsidies of China in 2007
3.3.1. Coal
3.3.2. Oil products
3.3.3. Natural gas
4. Simulation and analysis of fossil energy subsidies reform
4.1. Framework
4.2. Social accounting matrix
4.3. Energy subsidies computable general equilibrium model
4.3.1. Production and trade
4.3.2. Prices
4.3.3. Institutions
4.3.4. Environment
4.3.5. System constraints
4.4. Simulation and analysis of energy subsidies reform
4.4.1. Synthetic evaluation of removing coal subsidies
4.4.2. Synthetic evaluation of removing oil subsidies
4.4.3. Comparison of cutting coal and oil subsidies
5. Conclusions and suggestions
5.1. Conclusions
5.2. Suggestions
5.2.1. Cut the coal and oil subsidies gradually and successively
5.2.2. Pay more attention to social vulnerable group while cutting
fossil energy subsidies
5.2.3. Transfer fossil energy subsidies to non-fossil energy
and environmental protection
Acknowledgment
References