『Abstract
　This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (Kaufmann et al., 2004). Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by Engle-Granger (1987) and Gregory-Hansen (1996) in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (Hamilton, 2009). Our result also has significantly policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond.

Keywords: Cointegration; Oil market modelling; Oil imports by China and India』

1. Introduction
2. Literature review
　2.1. Factors driving world oil prices
　2.2. China crude oil import phenomenon
3. Methodology
　3.1. The empirical model and the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis
　3.2. Gregory-Hansen (1996) cointegration test
4. Data
5. Empirical results
　5.1. Analysis of the price rule of Kaufmann et al. (2004)
　5.2. Effect of oil imports by China and India
6. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References