『Abstract
　This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to estimate the performance of China's coal-fired electricity industry on resource consumption and environmental emissions. From the integrated estimation of three scenarios characterizing different stages of technology innovation in 2007-2030, technology innovation is proven to be the determinant in decreasing resource use and environmental effects from electricity production, but analysis based on current policies reveals some doubt in achieving the coal consumption intensity control target. Constrained with national control targets, the best route of technology innovation is calculated by integrated benefit targeting optimization. Supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) pressure boilers, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and closed-cycle wet cooling with a high circulation ratio will be the mainstream technologies before 2030 based on current policy. It is inevitable to close or reconstruct small power plants from the late 2010s, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and pressurized fluidized bed combustion combined cycle (PFBC-CC) plants will show a competitive advantage in the late 2020s. However, air cooling and FGD systems will expand slower than the authorities' expectation, while higher water prices and SO2 charges promote the expansion. Stricter restrictions are also found to be positive for technological progress.

Keywords: Technology innovation; Resource consumption; Environmental emissions』

1. Introduction
2. Technology innovation in China's coal-fired electricity industry
　2.1. Emergence of new generation technologies
　2.2. Innovation in cooling systems
　2.3. Popularization of flue gas desulfurization systems
　2.4. Demonstration projects of CO2 capture and storage
3. Methodology
　3.1. Technology database
　3.2. Projection of the amount of generated electricity
　3.3. Methodology of technology-based prediction
　　3.3.1. Coal consumption prediction
　　3.3.2. Water withdrawal forecasting
　　3.3.3. SO2 and CO2 emission calculation
　3.4. Formulation of technology structure optimization
　　3.4.1. Calculation of net benefit
　　3.4.2. Optimization of technology structure
　　3.4.3. Main assumption in the optimization
　　3.4.4. Resources and environmental constraints
　3.5. Model validation
4. Scenario study on China's coal power sector in 2010-2030
　4.1. Scenario design
　4.2. Scenario analysis
　　4.2.1. Resource consumption and exhaust emissions in different scenarios
　　4.2.2. Influence of technology innovation
5. Optimization of technology innovation in China's coal power sector
　5.1. Optimization result
　　5.1.1. Generation technology structure
　　5.1.2. Structure of cooling technologies
　　5.1.3. FGD fixing rate and composition
　　5.1.4. CO2 emission of the optimization result
　5.2. Factors influencing optimization results
　　5.2.1. Influence of energy constraints and coal prices
　　5.2.2. Influence of water withdrawal and water price
　　5.2.3. Influence of the SO2 emission constraint and emission change
9. Policy discussion
7. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix. Main technology structure in different scenarios (％)
References