『Abstract
　The fast growth of vehicle population in China has caused problems such as traffic congestion and excessive fuel consumption. There have been demands for policy control on growth in private vehicle travel demand. Beijing and Shanghai are China's first two cities to implement policies on vehicle ownership and use. In this paper, we compared policies in the two cities and estimated their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles. The limitation of vehicle use in Beijing provides limited but immediate reduction in fuel consumption. The limitation of vehicle ownership in Shanghai provides large potential of fuel conservation in a longer term. Under current policy, fuel consumptions by passenger vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai in 2020 were estimated to reach 7.5 and 3.9 billion liters, respectively. The experiences of Beijing and Shanghai are highly relevant for cities in China and abroad that are facing the same problems.

Keywords: Transport modeling; Vehicle policy; Vehicle ownership and use』

1. Introduction
2. Policies on vehicle ownership and use
　2.1. Policies on vehicle ownership
　　2.1.1. Nationwide policies on vehicle ownership
　　2.1.2. Shanghai's policies on vehicle ownership
　　2.1.3. Beijing's policies on vehicle ownership
　2.2. Policies on vehicle use
　　2.2.1. Beijing's policies on vehicle use
　　2.2.2. Shanghai's policies on vehicle use
3. Policy effectiveness analysis
　3.1. Policy effectiveness analysis on vehicle ownership
　3.2. Policy effectiveness analysis on vehicle use
4. Policy impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles
　4.1. Estimation of passenger vehicle population
　　4.1.1. Under CPS
　　4.1.2. Under NPS
　　4.1.3. Estimation of passenger vehicle populations
　4.2. Estimation of VDT
　4.3. Estimation of AFCR
　4.4. Estimation of policy impacts
5. Discussion
6. Concluding remarks
Acknowledgements
References