Qingyu,Z., Weili,T., Yingyue,Z. and Lili,Z.(2010): Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios. Energy Policy, 38, 6860-6867.

『エネルギーシナリオにおける2030年までの中国の自動車の燃料消費』


Abstract
 Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii)‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent ) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 699.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.

Keywords: Energy policy; Fuel consumption; Vehicle numbers』

1. Introduction
2. Methodology
 2.1. Vehicle number projection
 2.2. Average number of kilometers traveled by vehicles
 2.3. Scenario designs
  2.3.1. BAU scenario
  2.3.2. AFE scenario
  2.3.3. AER scenario
 2.4. Fuel economy
3. Results and discussion
 3.1. Vehicle number prediction
 3.2. Fuel economy
 3.3. Fuel consumptions
4. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
Reference


戻る