Qu,M., Ahponen,P., Tahvanainen,L. and Pelkonen,P.(2010): Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China. Energy Policy, 38, 6767-6775.

『中国の森林バイオエネルギーの開発に対する中国人学術専門家の評価』


Abstract
 The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

Keywords: Academic experts; Delphi survey; Forest bio-energy』

1. Introduction
2. Method
 2.1. Delphi method
 2.2. Study population
 2.3. Survey design
  2.3.1. Pilot questionnaire
  2.3.2. First round questionnaire
  2.3.3. The second round questionnaire
 2.4. Data analysis
3. Results
 3.1. Social-demographic characteristics of the respondents
 3.2. Key drivers
 3.3. Advantages and potential problems
  3.3.1. Advantages
  3.3.2. Potential problems
 3.4. Evaluation of recommendations
 3.5. The role of different sectors and Chinese government in the development of forest bio-energy
 3.6. Future development of forest bio-energy in China
4. Discussion
 4.1. Experts' opinions and their socio-demography
 4.2. The assessment of the current development of forest bio-energy in China
 4.3. The strong role of government in the future development of forest bio-energy
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Appendix: The first round questionnaire
References


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