『Abstract
In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also
brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power
plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power
retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number
of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry
is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough
analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity
price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment
is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price
adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of
electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based
on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are
as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost
of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends
with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase
has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases
have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently,
electricity price policy making must consequently consider all
factors to minimize their adverse influence.
Keywords: Electricity price adjustment; CGE; Economic influence』
1. Introduction
2. Analytical framework
2.1. CGE model structure
(1) Price equations
(2) Quantity equations
(3) Income equations
(4) Expenditure equations
(5) Market clearing conditions and macroeconomic closure
2.2. Database of CGE - social accounting matrix
2.3. Parameters of the model
3. Impact of coal price on electricity price
3.1. Background
3.2. Scenario simulations
4. Impact analysis of power price fluctuations
4.1. Impact and elasticity analysis of power price fluctuations
on the price of downstream products
4.2. Influence on the output of downstream products
4.3. Influence on the CPI
4.4. Influence on other macro-indicators
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgement
References