『Abstract
The general concern on the environmental implications of the
rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few
years has induced considerable research effort on produce accurate
forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous
study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level.
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate an d forecast
the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by
provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given
the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial
autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In
particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial
level with fixed-effect spatial models. The empirical results
show that the fixed-effect spatial ADL model is able to capture
the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts
an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of nearly 2%.
Keywords: Energy demand in China; Coal demand in China; Chinese
provinces; Panel data; Spatial econometrics; Forecasting』
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Modelling industrial coal demand in China: a special econometrics
approach
4. Data description
5. Spatial nature of China's industrial coal demand data
6. Model specifications and empirical results
6.1. Static model
6.2. Dynamic models
6.3. Sample heterogeneity
7. Forecasting industrial coal demand in China
8. Conclusions
Appendix A
References
|
|
(100万トン/年) |
大同(Datong) | 山西(Shanxi) | 31.7546 |
(Kailuan) | 河北(Hebei) | 17.6048 |
平頂山(Pingdingshan) | 河南(Henan) | 17.1478 |
淮北(Huaibei) | 安徽(Anhui) | 14.2321 |
西山(Xishan) | 山西(Shanxi) | 14.1277 |
鶴崗(Hegang) | 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) | 13.1307 |
徐州(Xuzhou) | 江蘇(Jiangsu) | 13.1031 |
阜新(Fuxin) | 遼寧(Liaoning) | 12.6987 |
龍口(Longkou) | 山東(Shandong) | 12.0031 |
(Yanzhuo) | 山東(Shandong) | 12.0031 |
鶏西(Jixi) | 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) | 11.6442 |
淮南(Huainan) | 安徽(Anhui) | 11.4985 |
(Yangquan) | 山西(Shanxi) | 10.4769 |
馮峰(Fengfeng) | 河北(Hebei) | 10.3700 |
(Jincheng) | 山西(Shanxi) | 10.3206 |
鉄法(Tiefa) | 遼寧(Liaoning) | 10.2410 |
(Xinwen) | 山東(Shandong) | 10.0890 |
七台河(Qitaihe) | 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) | 10.0601 |
雙鴨山(Shuangyashan) | 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) | 10.0155 |
|
1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 |
山西(Shanxi) | 140.0 | 143.8 | 137.7 | 143.5 | 128.4 | 133.2 | 138.8 | 170.1 |
河北(Hebei) | 90.8 | 92.0 | 92.3 | 94.8 | 96.7 | 101.6 | 106.5 | 117.8 |
山東(Shandong) | 86.6 | 91.6 | 91.5 | 87.1 | 86.1 | 75.3 | 94.7 | 110.9 |
江蘇(Jiangsu) | 83.1 | 83.2 | 79.9 | 81.8 | 83.4 | 84.5 | 87.1 | 94.0 |
河南(Henan) | 66.7 | 69.6 | 65.4 | 68.1 | 71.0 | 76.9 | 83.1 | 93.7 |
遼寧(Liaoning) | 81.5 | 80.9 | 79.7 | 76.4 | 73.9 | 86.0 | 81.2 | 84.0 |
広東(Guangdong) | 45.3 | 47.7 | 48.6 | 48.1 | 50.8 | 57.3 | 58.9 | 64.8 |
内モンゴル自治区(Inner Mongolia) | 37.7 | 40.6 | 48.6 | 44.1 | 48.3 | 53.4 | 57.1 | 63.4 |
安徽(Anhui) | 44.8 | 47.5 | 49.3 | 48.0 | 50.0 | 53.2 | 57.2 | 59.7 |
浙江(Zhejiang) | 39.5 | 43.2 | 45.1 | 44.3 | 45.8 | 48.3 | 53.5 | 58.6 |