Cattaneo,C, Manera,M. and Scarpa,E.(2010): Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis. Resource and Energy Economics, 24p.

『中国の産業用石炭需要』


Abstract
 The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort on produce accurate forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate an d forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with fixed-effect spatial models. The empirical results show that the fixed-effect spatial ADL model is able to capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of nearly 2%.

Keywords: Energy demand in China; Coal demand in China; Chinese provinces; Panel data; Spatial econometrics; Forecasting』

1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Modelling industrial coal demand in China: a special econometrics approach
4. Data description
5. Spatial nature of China's industrial coal demand data
6. Model specifications and empirical results
 6.1. Static model
 6.2. Dynamic models
 6.3. Sample heterogeneity
7. Forecasting industrial coal demand in China
8. Conclusions
Appendix A
References

表1 主要石炭鉱山の生産量

石炭鉱山

生産量
(100万トン/年)
大同(Datong) 山西(Shanxi) 31.7546
(Kailuan) 河北(Hebei) 17.6048
平頂山(Pingdingshan) 河南(Henan) 17.1478
淮北(Huaibei) 安徽(Anhui) 14.2321
西山(Xishan) 山西(Shanxi) 14.1277
鶴崗(Hegang) 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) 13.1307
徐州(Xuzhou) 江蘇(Jiangsu) 13.1031
阜新(Fuxin) 遼寧(Liaoning) 12.6987
龍口(Longkou) 山東(Shandong) 12.0031
(Yanzhuo) 山東(Shandong) 12.0031
鶏西(Jixi) 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) 11.6442
淮南(Huainan) 安徽(Anhui) 11.4985
(Yangquan) 山西(Shanxi) 10.4769
馮峰(Fengfeng) 河北(Hebei) 10.3700
(Jincheng) 山西(Shanxi) 10.3206
鉄法(Tiefa) 遼寧(Liaoning) 10.2410
(Xinwen) 山東(Shandong) 10.0890
七台河(Qitaihe) 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) 10.0601
雙鴨山(Shuangyashan) 黒竜江(Heilongjiang) 10.0155

表2 選ばれた省の産業用石炭需要(100万トン)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
山西(Shanxi) 140.0 143.8 137.7 143.5 128.4 133.2 138.8 170.1
河北(Hebei) 90.8 92.0 92.3 94.8 96.7 101.6 106.5 117.8
山東(Shandong) 86.6 91.6 91.5 87.1 86.1 75.3 94.7 110.9
江蘇(Jiangsu) 83.1 83.2 79.9 81.8 83.4 84.5 87.1 94.0
河南(Henan) 66.7 69.6 65.4 68.1 71.0 76.9 83.1 93.7
遼寧(Liaoning) 81.5 80.9 79.7 76.4 73.9 86.0 81.2 84.0
広東(Guangdong) 45.3 47.7 48.6 48.1 50.8 57.3 58.9 64.8
内モンゴル自治区(Inner Mongolia) 37.7 40.6 48.6 44.1 48.3 53.4 57.1 63.4
安徽(Anhui) 44.8 47.5 49.3 48.0 50.0 53.2 57.2 59.7
浙江(Zhejiang) 39.5 43.2 45.1 44.3 45.8 48.3 53.5 58.6


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