『Abstract
Logistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict
the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as
well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based
on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will
reach its peak in the 2030s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces
will be achieved by the 2040s and 2020s respectively. This article
also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and
revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal
demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint
into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal
import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes
of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal
consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills
CO2 intensity constraint, the contry's energy
situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth
rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2
intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic
energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy
structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further
assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure.
Keywords: Energy structure adjustment; CO2
intensity constraint; Energy security constraint』
1. Introduction
2. Peak coal and its influential factors
2.1. Peak coal
2.2. Methodology
2.2.1. Logistic growth model
2.2.2. Gaussian model
2.3. Coal peak of China and its typical coal related provinces
2.4. The influential factors of coal peak
2.4.1. Coal reserve
2.4.2. Recovery rate
2.4.3. Government policies
(1) Production policy
(2) Climate change policy
3. Impact of constraints of carbon intensity and energy security
on China's coal import
3.1. Constraint of carbon intensity
3.2. Constraint of energy security
3.3. The energy structure which could satisfy both carbon constraint
and energy security constraint
4. Conclusion and policy suggestion
Acknowledgments
References
Fig. 3. The coal peak of China. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Lin et al.(2012)による『Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import』から |