『Abstract
　China's natural gas consumption has increased rapidly in recent years making China a net gas importer. As a nonrenewable energy, the gas resource is exhaustible. Based on the forecast of this article. China's gas production peak is likely to approach in 2022. However, China is currently in the industrialization and urbanization stage, and its natural gas consumption will persistently increase. With China's gas production peak, China will have to face a massive expansion in gas imports. As the largest developing country, China's massive import of gas will have an effect on the international gas market. In addition, as China's natural gas price is still controlled by the government and has remained at a low level, the massive imports of higher priced gas will exert great pressure on China's gas price reform.

Keywords: Peak gas; Logistic and Gaussian curves; China's net import of gas』

1. Introduction
2. Background
　2.1. Reserves
　2.2. Production and consumption status
　2.3. Consumption forecasting
3. The concept of natural gas peak
4. Methodology
　4.1. Logistic growth model
　4.2. Gaussian curve model
5. Natural gas peak in China
　5.1. The estimated results
　5.2. URR sensitivity analysis
6. Trends of China's net gas import and its impacts
　6.1. The trends of China's net gas import
　6.2. Impacts of China's natural gas import
7. Policy recommendations
References

Fig. 1. Predictions of China’s natural gas peak in different scenarios. Lin and Wang(2012)による『Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends』から