Jiang,Z. and Lin,B.(2012): China's energy demand and its characteristics in the industrialization and urbanization process. Energy Policy, 49, 608-615.

『中国のエネルギー需要および産業化と都市化過程におけるその特徴』


Abstract
 China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is the key stage of transition from a low-income country to a middle-income country and requires large amount of energy. The process will not end until 2020, so China's primary energy demand will keep high growth in the mid-term. Although each country is unique considering its particular history and background, all countries are sharing some common rules in energy demand for economic development. Based on the comparison with developed countries, here, we report some rules in the process of industrialization and urbanization as follows: (1) urbanization always goes along with industrialization; (2) the higher economic growth is, the higher energy demand is; (3) economic globalization makes it possible to shorten the time of industrialization, but the shorter the transition phase is, the faster energy demand grows; (4) the change of energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve, but whose shape can be changed for different energy policy. The above rules are very important for the Chinese government in framing its energy policy.

Keywords: Energy demand; Urbanization; Industrialization』

1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Methodology and results
 3.1. Methodology
  3.1.1. Variable definitions
  3.1.2. The model
 3.2. Empirical results
4. Primary energy demand forecast
 4.1. Variable hypothesis
 4.2. Result of primary energy demand forecast
5. The characteristic of energy demand in the process of industrialization and urbanization
 5.1. The US
 5.2. Japan
6. The characteristic of energy demand in the process of economic evolution
7. Conclusions and suggestions
 7.1. Conclusions
 7.2. Policy implications
Acknowledgments
References


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