『Abstract
China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization,
which is the key stage of transition from a low-income country
to a middle-income country and requires large amount of energy.
The process will not end until 2020, so China's primary energy
demand will keep high growth in the mid-term. Although each country
is unique considering its particular history and background, all
countries are sharing some common rules in energy demand for economic
development. Based on the comparison with developed countries,
here, we report some rules in the process of industrialization
and urbanization as follows: (1) urbanization always goes along
with industrialization; (2) the higher economic growth is, the
higher energy demand is; (3) economic globalization makes it possible
to shorten the time of industrialization, but the shorter the
transition phase is, the faster energy demand grows; (4) the change
of energy intensity presents as an “inverted U” curve, but whose
shape can be changed for different energy policy. The above rules
are very important for the Chinese government in framing its energy
policy.
Keywords: Energy demand; Urbanization; Industrialization』
1. Introduction
2. Literature review
3. Methodology and results
3.1. Methodology
3.1.1. Variable definitions
3.1.2. The model
3.2. Empirical results
4. Primary energy demand forecast
4.1. Variable hypothesis
4.2. Result of primary energy demand forecast
5. The characteristic of energy demand in the process of industrialization
and urbanization
5.1. The US
5.2. Japan
6. The characteristic of energy demand in the process of economic
evolution
7. Conclusions and suggestions
7.1. Conclusions
7.2. Policy implications
Acknowledgments
References