『Abstract
This paper explores how China's household consumption patterns
over the period 2005-2050 influence the total energy demand and
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two baseline
scenarios, and how it influences carbon prices as well as the
economic cost in the corresponding carbon mitigation scenarios.
To this end we first put forward two possible household consumption
expenditure patterns up to 2050 using the Working-Leser model,
taking into account total expenditure increase and urbanization.
For comparison, both expenditure patterns are then incorporated
in a hybrid recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model.
The results reveal that as income level increases in the coming
decades, the direct and indirect household energy requirements
and CO2 emissions would rise drastically.
When household expenditure shifts from material products and transport
to service-oriented goods, around 21,000 mtce(million ton coal
equivalent) of primary energy and 45 billion tons of CO2
emissions would be saved over the 45-year period from 2005 to
2050. Moreover, carbon prices in the dematerialized mitigation
scenario would fall by 13% in 2050, thus reducing the economic
cost.
Keywords: Household consumption expenditure pattern; Energy demand
and CO2 emissions; Computable general equilibrium
model』
1. Introduction
2. Household consumption expenditure
2.1. Historical international and Chinese household consumption
expenditure change
2.2. Exploring future possible Chinese household consumption
expenditure with the Engel function
3. The CGE model
3.1. Household sector
3.2. Production sector
3.3. Government
3.4 International transaction
3.5. Air pollutions and greenhouse gases
3.6. Base year data
3.7. Dynamic process
3.8. Future scenarios
4. Simulation results
4.1. Household consumption
4.2. Industry structure change
4.3. Total final energy consumption, total primary energy supply
and total CO2 emissions
4.4. Direct/indirect energy consumption and CO2
emissions from household sector
4.5. Carbon price and economic impacts
5. Discussion
5.1. Estimating future expenditure share parameters
5.2. Low carbon consumption in a fast developing country
6. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix
References