Song,F. and Zheng,X.(2012): What drives the change in China's energy intensity: Combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level. Energy Policy, 51, 445-453.

『中国のエネルギーの経済効率の変化を牽引するのは何か:省レベルで分解分析と計量経済分析を結合させる』


Abstract
 We employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind China's changing energy intensity using a provincial-level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009. The decomposition analysis indicates that: (a) all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement, while around three-fourths of the provinces' economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged; (b) consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90% of China's energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change.
 The econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited. The result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market-oriented pricing system in China's energy sector. The implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (FYP) has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002. Although the Chinese Government intended to change the industry-led economic growth pattern, it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment. More fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction.

Keywords: Energy intensity; Energy price; Policy evaluation』

1. Introduction
2. Decomposition analysis of China's changing energy intensity at the provincial level
 2.1. The decomposition method
 2.2. The decomposition results
3. Econometric analysis of China's changing energy intensity at the provincial level
 3.1. Model specification and explanatory variables
  3.1.1. Price
  3.1.2. Income
  3.1.3. Capital-labor ratio
  3.1.4. Annual investment
  3.1.5. Urbanization
  3.1.6. Energy resource endowment
  3.1.7. Policy
 3.2. Estimation results and discussion
4. Policy implications and conclusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix A. instrumented variable tests and estimation results
References


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