『Abstract
Mainland China has eleven nuclear power reactors in commercial
operation; six are under construction, and several more are slated
for development in the near future. Additional reactors are planned,
including some of the world's most advanced, to give a fivefold
increase in nuclear capacity up to 40 GWe by 2020,and then a further
three to fourfold increase to 120-160 GWe by 2030. The natural
uranium supply, however, does not correspond to the speed of nuclear
power development because of low production and poor deposits.
After examining the existing nuclear power status quo in China,
this paper provides an experimental model and a calculation method
for the natural uranium needed that is based on the nuclear capacity
to be installed in 2014. The natural uranium gap is further discussed
through an analysis of the uranium resource distribution, reserves,
and production in China, together with approaches to fill the
gap. To meet the imminent uranium peak that will be required for
fuel demands, China should diversify natural uranium sources and
develop advanced nuclear power systems to save fuel.
We kindly thank Mr. Graham Andrew, DGO, IAEA, for handing the
manuscript to Mr. Chaitanyamoy Ganguly and Mr. Jan Slezak for
review. We also thank Mr. Chaitanyamoy Ganguly and Mr. Jan Slezak
of the IAEA for their careful reviewing of the paper and for offering
very valuable comments. Many thanks also goes to Ms. Du Qingfeng
for polishing the manuscript.
Keywords: China's nuclear power; Natural uranium demand model;
natural uranium gap』
1. Introduction
2. The outlook for nuclear power in China
2.1. Status quo and NPP under construction
3. The natural uranium needed in China for nuclear power plants
3.1. Model and calculations
3.2. Total natural uranium needed for 2014
4. Uranium supply
4.1. Outlook on the global uranium production
4.2. China uranium resources and distribution
4.3. Distribution of uranium mineralization and exploit emphasis
in the future
4.4. Natural uranium gap in China
5. Solution
5.1. Oversea natural uranium expansion efforts
5.2. Reprocessing technology development and HTR
5.3. Thorium-based fuel cycles perspective
5.4. Using advanced fuel cycle of PWR/CANDU synergism to save
natural uranium
6. Conclusion
References