『Abstract
This paper is focused on the renewable energy targets set by
China in its 12th National Development Plan 2011-2015. In particular,
the paper examines deployment targets and the means to achieve
them, for hydro, wind and solar. These are its priority technologies,
in which the country has a level of competitive advantage. For
each of these energy sources, four projections have been produced.
These projections show whether and when China will meet its deployment
targets in terms of the cumulative amount of gigawatts (GW) of
installed capacity by 2015. In doing this, historical data from
2005 to 2010 has been analyzed for all three energy sources. Both
the average annual growth rate (AAGR), and the compound average
growth rate (CAGR) have been computed, in terms of the world averages
and China's national performance over this period. AAGR and CAGR
have been used for producing four scenarios for each renewable
by smoothing out excessive fluctuations. The most likely scenarios
for each technology are described. Finally, the gap between these
scenarios and the respective national targets set for 2015 and
2020 are calculated.
Keywords: China; Renewable energy deployment; Energy forecast』
1. Introduction
2. Energy targets for China's 12th development plan 2011-2015
3. How China can succeed
3.1. The role of Chinese central government
3.2. Chinese manufacturing industry
4. Hydropower
5. Wind
6. Solar
7. Summary and conclusions
Acknowledgments
References