Sagawa,A., and Koizumi,K.(2008): Trends of exports and imports of coal by China and its influence on Asian markets. IEEJ, November, 1-19.

『中国による石炭の輸出と輸入の傾向およびアジア市場へのその影響』


Summary......3.
Introduction
1. Fluctuations of coal exports and imports and its main factors
 1.1. Transit of the export and import of coal
 1.2. Factors of fluctuations of the export and import volumes of coal
  (1) Strong coal demand
  (2) Policy changes in coal export and import
  (3) Price difference between domestic and foreign markets
  (4) Geographical location of the demand area (factors for import increase)
2. Overview on trend of export and import of coal
 2.1. Status quo of the Chinese trade of coal
  (1) Coal exports
  (2) Coal imports
 2.2. Prospects for coal exports and imports
  (1) Supply and demand of coal
  (2) Export of coal
  (3) Coal imports
3. The trend of coal exports and imports by China and its influence on Asia markets
 3.1. Influence of coal exports and imports by China
 3.2. Influence of increased imports of coal by China
 3.3. Influence on Asian markets in future
  Steaming coal
  Coking coal
  Anthracite coal

Conclusion
 During the first half of 2008, the volume exported by China was 25.5 million tons (a 10% increase as compared with the same period of the preceding year), while the import volume was 21.6 million tons (a 20% decrease as compared with the same period the previous year) and the trend of decreased exports and increased imports, which had continued until last year, came to an end. The main reason is supposed to be soaring international prices. however, on the other hand, increasing domestic consumption remains strong, with no change in the tight conditions regarding the supply and demand of coal, while domestic coal prices still rise and coal is in short supply depending on the area. Under these circumstances, the Chinese Government raised the export tax rate on coking coal from 5% to 10% and levied an export tax of 10% on steaming coal and anthracite coal, which had not previously been levied, with effect from August 20, 2008. As a result, there is the potential for the volume of coal exports to fall below the previous year.
 China's coal consumption will increase in 2008 onward and until the coal supply system now being implemental progresses smoothly and stable supply commensurate with demand is secured, supply and demand of coal in China are expected to remain tight. Therefore, at least until this situation is alleviated, China's policy of curbing coal exports will continue, while the vole of export is expected to fall or level off, as opposed to the volume of imports, for which a fundamental increase is expected. It is difficult to forecast the extent to which these situations will influence Asian markets, but as the volume of exports and imports by China since the early 2000s has had a considerable impact on coal prices in Asian coal markets, it will certainly continue to influence Asian coal markets, meaning we must monitor domestic supply and demand and the trend of exports and imports by China.』

Attached tables


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