Summary......3.
Introduction
1. Fluctuations of coal exports and imports and its main factors
1.1. Transit of the export and import of coal
1.2. Factors of fluctuations of the export and import volumes
of coal
(1) Strong coal demand
(2) Policy changes in coal export and import
(3) Price difference between domestic and foreign markets
(4) Geographical location of the demand area (factors for import
increase)
2. Overview on trend of export and import of coal
2.1. Status quo of the Chinese trade of coal
(1) Coal exports
(2) Coal imports
2.2. Prospects for coal exports and imports
(1) Supply and demand of coal
(2) Export of coal
(3) Coal imports
3. The trend of coal exports and imports by China and its influence
on Asia markets
3.1. Influence of coal exports and imports by China
3.2. Influence of increased imports of coal by China
3.3. Influence on Asian markets in future
Steaming coal
Coking coal
Anthracite coal
『Conclusion
During the first half of 2008, the volume exported by China was
25.5 million tons (a 10% increase as compared with the same period
of the preceding year), while the import volume was 21.6 million
tons (a 20% decrease as compared with the same period the previous
year) and the trend of decreased exports and increased imports,
which had continued until last year, came to an end. The main
reason is supposed to be soaring international prices. however,
on the other hand, increasing domestic consumption remains strong,
with no change in the tight conditions regarding the supply and
demand of coal, while domestic coal prices still rise and coal
is in short supply depending on the area. Under these circumstances,
the Chinese Government raised the export tax rate on coking coal
from 5% to 10% and levied an export tax of 10% on steaming coal
and anthracite coal, which had not previously been levied, with
effect from August 20, 2008. As a result, there is the potential
for the volume of coal exports to fall below the previous year.
China's coal consumption will increase in 2008 onward and until
the coal supply system now being implemental progresses smoothly
and stable supply commensurate with demand is secured, supply
and demand of coal in China are expected to remain tight. Therefore,
at least until this situation is alleviated, China's policy of
curbing coal exports will continue, while the vole of export is
expected to fall or level off, as opposed to the volume of imports,
for which a fundamental increase is expected. It is difficult
to forecast the extent to which these situations will influence
Asian markets, but as the volume of exports and imports by China
since the early 2000s has had a considerable impact on coal prices
in Asian coal markets, it will certainly continue to influence
Asian coal markets, meaning we must monitor domestic supply and
demand and the trend of exports and imports by China.』
Attached tables