『Abstract
China has emerged as a leader in coal liquefaction. While the
country's abundant coal resources and acute concerns about oil
security help explain China's interest in liquefaction, the driving
forces for this industry are complicated and policy has been inconsistent.
Since 2006 Beijing has tried to slow down the development of liquefaction;
even as China has become more dependent on imported oil, the central
government has been wary about the large impact of liquefaction
technologies on scarce resources such as water. However, local
government officials in coal rich areas have strong incentives
to pour investment into the technology, which helps explain the
uneven development and policy. The future of coal liquefaction
will depend on how these forces unfold along with major Beijing-led
reforms in the Chinese coal industry, which is closing smaller
mines and favoring the emergence of larger coal producing firms.
Those reforms will have mixed effects on liquefaction. They temporarily
contribute to higher prices for coal while over the longer term
creating coal companies that have much greater financial and technical
skills needed to deploy technologies such as coal liquefaction
at a scale needed if this energy pathway is to be competitive
with conventional sources of liquid fuel.
Keywords: China; Coal liquefaction; Coal』
1. Introduction
2. China's CTL industry before 2006: history and driving forces
2.1. Main development in China's coal liquefaction policy,
1950s-2006
2.1.1. R&D initialized and suspended (1950s-1967)
2.1.2. Interests revived (late 1970s-1990s)
2.1.3. Strong government support provided (mid of 1990s-2006)
2.2. Explaining China's coal liquefaction policies from 1950s
to 2006: three drivers
2.2.1. Energy security
2.2.2. Western development
2.2.3. Coal transport bottleneck
3. Beijing's reversal: central and local CTL policies since 2006)
4. Explaining China's CTL policy shift since 2006
4.1. Increasing water scarcity and other environmental concerns
4.2. Consolidation of the coal industry and shortages in coal
supply
4.3. Development craze from local governments
5. Ordos city: a vignette of coal liquefaction policies at the
local level
6. Concluding remarks
Acknowledgments
References