Li,J. and Wang,X.(2012): Energy and climate policy in China's twelfth five-year plan: A paradigm shift. Energy Policy, 41, 519-528.

『中国の第12次五カ年計画におけるエネルギーと気候政策:パラダイムシフト』


Abstract
 The twelfth five-year plan (FYP) endorsed by the People's National Congress in March 2011 plays a crucial role in shaping China's development trajectory over the next decades, and especially for the fulfillment of the 40-45 carbon intensity reduction target by 2020. The plan will condition both the medium and long term perspectives of economic restructuring, rebalance between the inclusive economic growth and environmental objectives, which are compounded by multiple constraints faced by China such as aging population, natural resources depletion, energy supply security and environmental deterioration. This article investigates the major energy and climate targets and actions specified in the 12th FYP to gain insights into the nature and magnitude of challenges and difficulties with regard to the medium and long run economic and environmental policies. It points out that China should articulate sectoral policies with the global climate mitigation targets to avoid long term carbon lock-in. Based on an in-depth analysis of the objectives in the plan, it is argued that the implementation should include mainstreaming developments of appropriate instruments to support cost-effective energy efficiency improvements and carbon intensity reduction in the next five years.

Keywords: Five-year plan; Energy and climate policy; Cost-effectiveness』

1. Introduction
2. Unfolding the 12th FYP: towards cost-effective policies and measures
 2.1. Key mandate energy and climate relevant targets in the 12th FYP
 2.2. Fundamental guidelines in the 12th FYP
  2.2.1.Strategies of low carbon development: seven strategic emerging industries
  2.2.2. Diversify economic and policy instruments
3. Challenges and opportunities in the 12th FYP
 3.1. Reorient the expanding energy sectors
 3.2. Costs to carbon intensity abatement
 3.3. Barriers and uncertainties in the 12th FYP
  3.3.1. Viable green growth and to paradigm change
  3.3.2. Dilemma of shutdown of inefficient producing capacities in the 12th FYP
 3.4. Political economy and environmental implications of the 12th FYP
  3.4.1. Dichotomy of structural change and macroeconomic policy
  3.4.2. Infrastructural lock-In
  3.4.3. Potential climate relevant trade conflicts
4. Key elements of success
 4.1. Articulate structural change and growth model with the global targets of climate stabilisation
 4.2. Cost-effective instruments and relevant macroeconomic policies
  4.2.1. Enhance governance to attract low carbon investments
  4.2.2. Integral approach to preventing the long term carbon loch-In
  4.2.3. Accelerate institutional reform to enhance market efficacy
 4.3. MRV and transparency in climate policy
5. Concluding remarks
Appendix
References  


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