『Abstract
This article presents an updated and upgraded methodology, the
Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/),
to project vehicle sales and stock in China on the basis of our
previous studies. The methodology presented has the following
major improvements: it simulates private car ownership on an income-level
basis, takes into account car purchase prices, separates sales
into purchases for fleet growth and for replacements of scrapped
vehicles, and examines various possible vehicle scrappage patterns
for China. The results show that the sales of private light-duty
passenger vehicles in China could reach 23-42 million by 2050,
with the share of new-growth purchases representing 16-28%. The
total vehicles stock may be 530-623 million by 2050. We compare
this study to other publicly available studies in terms of both
projection methodology and results. A sensitivity analysis shows
that vehicle sales are more affected than levels of vehicle stock
by the model parameters, which makes projecting sales more difficult
owing to the lack of reliable input data for key model parameters.
Because it considers key factors in detail, the sales and stock
projection module of the FEEI model offers many advantages over
previous models and is capable of simulating various policy scenarios.
Keywords: Vehicle stock; Vehicle projection; China』
1. Brief background for this series of articles
2. Introduction
3. Vehicle classification
4. Methodology and data
4.1. Private LDVs
4.1.1. Income distribution function f(x)
4.1.2. Function of car ownership s(x,y)
4.1.3. Survival function r(x)
4.2. Commercial LDVs
4.3. Commercial buses and trucks
5. Results and analysis
5.1. Sales of private LDVs
5.2. Stock of LDVs
5.3. Stock of all vehicles in the fleet
6. Sensitivity analysis
7. Discussion
Acknowledgments
References