『Abstract
American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced
a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production
for oil of USA. In his 1956 article “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil
Fuels”, in which he predicted the production peak for the USA,
Hubbert used 80 pages of differential equations to draw his conclusions.
That earned him some criticism, because only those with profound
mathematical knowledge could understand. Hubbert presented in
his 1982 article, “Techniques of Prediction as Applied to the
Production of Oil and Gas” an alternative method was much more
accessible. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called
Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology.
The production of coal fields generally appears like a bell-shaped
curve - a gradual increase to maximum output, then a short peak
and a gradual decline. Some people thought the capacity of coal
supply only depended on the economical cost and technological
factors, but did not consider the life cycle of coal fields, namely,
that once the output has reached Hubbert Peak, no matter by whatever
effort, one cannot increase production. This paper proposes to
use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly
for the Chinese raw coal production. This model is demonstrated
as being robust. According to this simulation, the coal peak in
China comes between 2025 and 2032 with peak production at about
3339-4452 million tonnes. Before the peak comes, Chinese coal
output will grow by about 3％-4％ annually; after the peak, however,
the output will fall. China's coal demand at 2050 would be about
2500 Mt of raw coal and possess 42.6％ of total primary energy.
The figure of coal demand, 2500 Mt, would be beyond possible supply,
which is 2338 Mt according to the Hubbert curve of this paper.
The gap between coal supply and demand will be 7％ of the demand
at 2050. Notably, the sustainability of Chinese “coal dominated”
energy policy will be challenged seriously by this so-called Hubbert
Peak. In the coming decades China should find a new energy development
policy related to supply diversification.
Keywords: Hubbert Peak; STELLA model; Cumulative production』
1. Introduction
1.1. Reserves
1.2. Ownership of coal mines
1.3. Production
1.4. Productivity
1.5. Export and import
1.6. Uncertainty
2. Hubbert Peak
3. A generic STELLA diagram
3.1. Why use the STELLA
4. Conclusion
Appendix. STELLA equation
References