『Abstract
The production and the depletion of mineral resources, and especially
oil and fossil fuels, has been an object of extensive predictive
modeling. These predictions are often derived from Hubbert's model
which is based on the fitting of the experimental data to a symmetric,
bell-shaped curve. Although this model describes several historical
cases, in particular, crude oil production in the lower 48 US
states, not all theoretical models for the “mineral economy” are
based on symmetric curves. also, not much attention has been dedicated
so far to the mechanisms which lead to such a behavior. In particular,
scarce attention has been dedicated to the factors which may make
the production curve asymmetric, e.g. a decline in production
more abrupt than the growth. In the present paper, the author
uses a stochastic model to examine factors affecting these phenomena.
The results of the simulations indicate that the production curves
of a non-renewable resource may be asymmetric in dependence on
factors such as the search strategy or the presence of technological
improvements. Considering worldwide oil production, the simulations
indicate that the after-peak downward slope might turn out to
be considerably more steep than the upward slope, something that
could have unpleasant effects on the economy.
Keywords: Hubbert; Oil depletion; Mineral economy』
1. Introduction
2. Models for the mineral economy
3. Results and discussion
4. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References