『Abstract
The earth with all its inhabitants, including man, has had a
long history as a slowly evolving complex system which normally
exists in a state of stable dynamic equilibrium. Explosive growth
in the human population, in the per capita use of nonrenewable
resources, and in the degree of human disruption of established
ecosystems - the hallmark of man's recent and rapid emergence
as the dominant species on the face of the earth - represents
a major departure from this state of equilibrium and an ecological
crisis of global dimensions. This growth, and the rapid changes
that arise from it, have had such a pervasive influence on the
collective experience of man that they have come to be regarded
as the normal course of events on a stable earth. This has fostered
the notion that growth will always be essential for further improvements
in the quality of human life.
The emergence of a global technological civilization results
from man's ingenuity in devising ways of using an ever increasing
proportion of energy available at the earth's surface. Rapid growth
began only two hundred years ago when the developing technology
of the industrial revolution made possible the large-scale exploitation
of the earth's fossil-fuel resources and the creation of positive
feedback between growth in technology and growth in fossil-fuel
production.
Annual growth rates in world production of fossil fuels and ores
of representative industrial metals, when compared with the nature
and finite magnitude of the earth's resources, lead to the inescapable
conclusion that the present episode of exponential growth can
only be a transitory epoch of a few centuries duration within
the totality of human history. Solar radiation offers the proposal
of large supplies of energy with minimal environmental impact.
However, constraints on growth due to the finite nature of food
and mineral resources and the effects of environmental degradation
can only be loosened in this way, not removed. Mankind faces an
inevitable transition from a brief interlude of exponential growth
to a stable condition characterized by rates of growth so slow
as to be regarded essentially as a state of no growth. Failure
to respond rationally and promptly to this situation could be
disastrous.』
Introduction
Time
Mineral resources
Iron
Copper
Mercury
Energy resources
Population and the environment
Conclusions
References