『Abstract
Why is armed civil conflict more common in resource-dependent
countries than in others? Several studies have attempted to unravel
mechanisms on why natural resources are linked to armed conflict,
but no coherent picture has yet emerged. This article seeks to
address this puzzle by concentrating on the issue of how rebel
access to natural resources affects conflict. It uses data on
gemstone and hydrocarbon localities throughout the world and controls
for the spatial and temporal overlap of resources and conflict.
The results show that the location of resources is crucial to
their impact on conflict duration. If resources are located inside
the actual conflict zone, the duration is doubled. Interestingly,
oil and gas reserves have this effect on duration regardless of
whether there has been production or not. In addition, a country-level
analysis suggests that oil production increases the risk of conflict
onset when located onshore; offshore production has no effect
on onset. These results support the assertion that natural resources
play a central role in armed civil conflicts because of the incentives
and opportunities they present for rebel groups.
Keywords: conflict; conflict duration; diamonds; location; natural
resources; oil』
Introduction
From natural resources to conflict: The different mechanisms
Indirect mechanisms: Economic and political Dutch disease
and a weak state
Direct mechanisms: Greedy and aggrieved rebels and viable uprisings
Measuring the natural resource base in empirical studies
Data
Resource data
Dependent variable 1: Duration of armed civil conflict
Dependent variable 2: Onset of armed civil conflict
Control variables
Controls for simultaneous conflicts and time dependence in onset
model
Duration analysis
Onset analysis
Conclusions
Replication data
Acknowledgements
Funding
References