Collier,P. and Goderis,B.(2007): Commodity prices, growth, and the natural resource curse: Reconciling a conundrum. The Centre for the Study of African Economies Working Paper Series, 274, 41p.


 Currently, evidence on the ‘resource curse’ yields a conundrum. While there is much cross-section evidence to support the curse hypothesis, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise the growth of commodity exporters. This paper adopts panel cointegration methodology to explore longer term effects than permitted using VARs. We find strong evidence of a resource curse. Commodity booms have positive short-term effects on output, but adverse long-term effects. The long-term effects are confined to “high-rent”, non-agricultural commodities. We also find that the resource curse is avoided by countries with sufficiently good institutions. We test the channels of the resource curse proposed in the literature and find that a substantial part of it is explained by high public and private consumption, low or inefficient total investment, and an overvalued exchange rate. Our results fully account for the cross-section results in the seminal paper by Sachs and Warner (1995).

Keywords: commodity prices; natural resource curse; growth』

1. Introduction
2. The empirical analysis
 2.1. Constructing commodity price indices
3. Estimating the short and long run effects of commodity prices
4. The resource curse conditional on governance
5. The endogeneity of resource dependence and governance
6. The channels of the resource curse
 6.1. Testing the routes through which governance drives the resource curse
7. Explaining the results in the empirical literature
8. Conclusions
Appendix A
. Data description and sources
Appendix B
. Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests